Cowen Inc.

Jason Seidl is a seasoned leader in logistics and equity research with over 26 years of experience in the transportation and supply chain sector. He began his career in parcel and trucking operations, before transitioning to financial research at Wall Street. Since becoming Managing Director in the equity research department at TD Cowen, Seidl has established himself as a trusted voice at the intersection of logistics and investment strategy with expertise in air freight and surface transportation.

Recognizing Jason Seidl’s innovative leadership in bridging industry expertise with financial analysis, this feature highlights his dedication to strengthening supply chain visibility, rail and trucking insights and investment decision-making. A respected analyst and active industry contributor, Seidl shares perspectives shaped by his operational background, leadership in trade associations and academic advisory work.

From Operations to Leadership

My journey in logistics began during my undergraduate studies at Syracuse University, where I earned a degree in transportation distribution management (now called supply chain management). While in school, I also completed internships in exporting and warehousing, which gave me a hands-on understanding of the industry.

After graduation, I spent a year working with what is now FedEx Ground before running a small, not-for-hire less-than-truckload operation for a few years. Those four years in parcel and trucking taught me valuable lessons about efficiency and service.

In time, I transitioned to equity research, where I spent years as an analyst. My background in operations gave me a perspective that is rare among sell-side analysts, allowing me to bridge the gap between industry realities and financial markets.

Beyond my role at TD Cowen, I remain deeply engaged with the logistics community. I have served on the board of directors for the Northeast Association of Rail Shippers for more than 15 years. This year, I was named secretary of the North American Rail Shippers, the umbrella organization that oversees regional associations. I also serve on the advisory council for Syracuse University’s School of Supply Chain Management, contributing to the development of future industry leaders.

Navigating Uncertainty in Global Logistics

Over the course of my career, I have seen the trucking market experience many downturns. Most of them have lasted anywhere between six and eighteen months. Currently, the ongoing downturn is entering its third year.

A major cause of market imbalance is sustained overcapacity. During the supply chain crisis, many carriers expanded their capacity, which has been maintained by government support, strong financial reserves and a price drop in the used equipment market. These factors, combined with the rise of more brokerage operations that serve as a sales force for small carriers, have prolonged the imbalance between supply and demand.

Developments in technology, transportation and economic policy reveal the opportunities and uncertainties that the industry will need to navigate in the coming years

At the same time, global trade policies further complicate supply chain planning. Tariffs can appear or disappear suddenly. For supply chain leaders, this unpredictability makes strategic planning challenging. A notable case arose when the United States briefly imposed tariffs on Colombia. Though not a major trading partner, the move sparked concern for shippers with local plants. After hours of rapid planning and crisis management, the tariffs were withdrawn.

This uncertainty is reflected in projections for the months ahead. The National Federation of Retailers expects a strong double-digit decline in imports on a year-over-year basis. Companies advanced orders to mitigate tariff risks, rather than due to a drop in consumer demand.

For logistics leaders, this means preparing for a future where shifts in demand are driven more by policy decisions than by traditional consumer behavior. With trucking rates at historic lows, it is easy to focus only on short-term savings. However, downturns do not last forever. Companies must therefore treat their core carrier partners well today, which will influence future reliability and partnerships.

What the industry is really asking for is consistency. When the rules of the game are clear, companies can make informed plans and adapt with confidence. Until then, logistics leaders must remain flexible and forward-looking, balancing immediate challenges with future contingencies.

Shaping Supply Chains with Innovation and Investment

Several key trends are set to influence the logistics industry over the next 24 months. The first is a broader adoption of technology across transportation networks, which promises to simplify operations and enhance supply chain visibility. While many carriers and logistics companies are only beginning to explore artificial intelligence, the potential applications are vast.

Another major development on the horizon is the proposed merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern. If approved, the consolidation could create a more fluid transcontinental rail network, shifting freight movement patterns across the United States. At the same time, industry leaders remain cautious, recognizing that past rail mergers have sometimes caused short-term service disruptions and dislocations.

On a broader economic scale, the interest rate environment and recent federal legislation will also shape industry dynamics. Lower interest rates could stimulate investment and influence supply chain strategies, while new measures within the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act will make reshoring more economically viable. The bill reinstates 100 percent bonus depreciation for equipment and facilities, improving the financial case for bringing production back to the United States.

Together, these developments in technology, transportation and economic policy highlight the opportunities and uncertainties that the industry will navigate in the coming years.

Turning Leadership Insights into Operational Impact

Success begins with hiring the right talent and continues with listening to them. My father, who was my role model in business, always reminded me that recruiting the best people is only the first step. The true value comes from respecting their insights and creating space for them to be heard.

Equally important is stepping outside the office and into the field. The rank-and-file workers often hold the clearest understanding of ground realities that data alone cannot show. Listening to them will give you a perspective that no office report can provide. Leaders who take the time to engage directly with these voices build stronger awareness and trust across their organizations.

As the logistics sector becomes more digital and transactions increasingly automated, human connection matters more than ever. Brokers should take the time to know the carriers moving their freight. This is especially critical as fraud continues to grow across the industry. Investing in fraud prevention and strengthening partnerships with trusted carriers is a safeguard and a way to reinforce long-term reliability.